Strategies for Making Decisions with Limited Information

As a fighter pilot and military leader, I often had to make time-critical decisions. I never had perfect information or a 100% solution, but I still needed to be decisive and take action. It wasn’t always easy, but the more experience (and practice) I had, the easier it became to make decisions quickly. How did I get to the point where I felt confident in making quick decisions? 1️⃣ Prepare – do the research, know your stuff. It’s easier to make a quick decision when you have done the work to be knowledgeable about a situation. Going in cold is much more difficult. 2️⃣ Plan for contingencies – think through contingencies in advance. If you think through the “what ifs” in advance, then you will feel better prepared to make a decision. 3️⃣ Seek input – you don’t have to have all the answers. When time permits, seek out input from experts, and also from your team members who are closest to the action and will be most impacted by your decision. 4️⃣ Evaluate the pros and cons – Think through the consequences of your decision. How will it impact your team? What are the outcomes related to your decision? 5️⃣ Make the decision – Make a timely decision and communicate it to your team. Explain your thought process and reasoning to help gain buy-in and understanding. 6️⃣ Hold yourself accountable for the decision. If it’s wrong, admit it, and go back to adjust. We can all face challenges that can make us feel stressed or worried about making a timely decision. But when it comes down to it, leaders need to be prepared to make tough decisions in challenging circumstances when time is limited. #DecisionMaking #LeadershipDevelopment #LeadWithCourage

WHAT'S OVERTHINKING COSTING YOUR BUSINESS? "Let's gather more data before we decide." "I want to see what the competition does first." "We should run this by a few more people." These phrases are momentum killers. You research your market opportunity to death. Analyze competitors until you know their strategies better than your own. Build financial models with seventeen different scenarios. Meanwhile, competitors launch products, raise funding, and get acquired. You have the best research. They have the results. THE PROBLEM WITH OVER-ANALYSIS: In uncertain markets, more data often makes you feel safer without actually making you safer. Waiting too long to act usually costs more than acting imperfectly. HERE'S HOW TO BREAK THE OVERTHINKING HABIT: IF YOU HAVE MOST OF WHAT YOU NEED, JUST DECIDE. You don't need perfect information. If you've got about 70% of what you'd ideally want, that's probably enough. Waiting for complete certainty often means missing the opportunity entirely. PUT A TIME LIMIT ON EVERY DECISION. Give yourself two weeks max to figure things out, no matter how big the decision feels. If you can't decide in two weeks, break it into smaller pieces you can test. TRY STUFF INSTEAD OF STUDYING STUFF. Want to know if customers will pay for a new feature? Don't spend months researching—build a basic version in two weeks and see what happens. Test it with 10 friendly customers. Let real people tell you if it works, not spreadsheets. REALISTIC EXAMPLES: While you spent 6 months researching a new market, one company spent 4 weeks getting their first paying customer and learned way more in the process. While you spent 3 months analyzing pricing strategies, another company just tested two different prices with real customers for 5 weeks and got actual buying data. KEEP IT SAFE: Start small. Set clear success metrics upfront. Put time limits on experiments. Focus on learning fast, not doing everything perfectly. THE MINDSET SHIFT: Instead of asking "Are we sure this will work?" ask "What's the fastest way to find out?" The biggest risk isn't making wrong decisions—it's making no decisions while your competitors figure things out by doing. What decision have you been overthinking that you could just try instead? *** I’m Jennifer Kamara, founder of Kamara Life Design. Enjoy this? Repost to share with your network, and follow me for actionable strategies to design businesses and lives with meaning. Want to go from good to world-class? Join our community of subscribers today: https://lnkd.in/d6TT6fX5 

Want to make better decisions in the age of AI uncertainty? I developed a risk mitigation principle a few years back called 'Worst Case Best Action' (WCBA) that might help: 1. Imagine the worst possible scenario(s)  2. List all potential actions you could take if they happened 3. Score those same actions against the best-case scenario 4. Choose actions that works best Example: "AI takes all jobs" ⏩ Action: Going off-grid, withdrawing from society 📄 Score if best case happens instead: 1/10 (you've isolated yourself for no reason) ⏩ Action: Learning to work alongside AI systems 📄 Score if best case happens instead: 9/10 (you've gained valuable skills regardless) AI can even help with this. Success doesn’t require you perfectly predict the future—pick the action that strengthens your position.

A man with a watch knows what time it is. A man with two watches is never sure. ~ Segal’s Law More data doesn’t mean better decisions. In fact, it often leads to paralysis, over-analysis, and slower execution. So ... how do you filter out the signal from the noise? While AI cannot replace your instincts and judgment, nor make a high-stakes leadership call on your behalf, it can be a valuable thought partner in decision-making. Here are AI prompts to challenge your own thinking: CLARIFY THE CONTEXT 💭 What is the core problem we’re solving, and how has it evolved over time? 💭 What data or evidence suggests this is the right priority right now? 💭 What are the second- and third-order consequences of this decision? 💭 What does success look like in 12 months? What about failure? 💭 If we had to explain this decision in one sentence, what would it be? MODEL SCENARIOS 💭 What are the best-case, worst-case, and most likely scenarios if we move forward? 💭 How would this decision play out in different competitive conditions? 💭 What factors would make this decision a game-changer or a massive failure? 💭 What are the opportunity costs of choosing this path over others? 💭 If we succeed beyond expectations, what new risks or constraints will emerge? STRESS TEST ASSUMPTIONS 💭 What assumptions are we making that could be flawed or outdated? 💭 What evidence would immediately prove this decision wrong? 💭 What are the hidden risks or unintended consequences we aren’t considering? 💭 Are we making this decision based on past success, or future relevance? 💭 What is the hidden downside of being right? PRIORITIZE SPEED 💭 What is the ONE critical insight that makes this decision 80% clear right now? 💭 If we had to make this decision within 24 hours, what would we prioritize? 💭 Are we optimizing for certainty, or are we delaying out of fear? 💭 If we delay this decision by 6 months, what are the risks and missed opportunities? 💭 What’s the smallest action we can take to test this decision before fully committing? BUILD FEEDBACK LOOPS 💭 What are the top 3 leading indicators that will signal whether this decision is working? 💭 What biases might cause us to ignore early warning signs of failure? 💭 If this decision needs to be reversed, what’s the fastest and least costly way to do it? 💭 How will we ensure that feedback is acted upon, not just collected? 💭 What questions should we be asking 6 months from now to reassess this decision? #leadership #AI #innovation

No decision you face in business or life will come with perfect clarity or complete certainty. Embrace the reality that decisions involve risk. Waiting for the “perfect solution” often leads to missed opportunities or worsening problems. It gives your competition the chance to get ahead of you. Here are three steps to take to be decisive as a leader amid uncertainty: First, recognize that indecision carries its own risks. Allowing dysfunction to persist can hurt morale, stall progress, and undermine the mission. Leaders must assess the cost of inaction just as seriously as the cost of making the wrong decision. Second, act with the best information available. Swiftly making small, iterative decisions in the direction that seems to move towards the overarching goal and desired end state. Then, reevaluate the situation and gather new information when it becomes available and use that to make adjustments where needed. Finally, understand that most decisions aren’t final. Most decisions are a step forward, not an endpoint. Leadership requires reassessing outcomes and adjusting course as new information emerges. This approach transforms risk into opportunity. This week, identify a decision you’ve been delaying. Do you truly lack critical information? Or, is fear of imperfection holding you back? If you lack critical information, take action and gather it. Take the smallest iterative step you can in the direction that seems most effective, based upon the best information you have. Then, reevaluate. Every week, we provide free combat-tested leadership lessons that help teams lead and win in our newsletter, the Extreme Ownership Rundown. Join here: https://lnkd.in/g9ugtKrH