Techniques for Better Decision Making

Learning must come before deciding. As explained in Chapter One, your brain stores different types of learning in your subconscious, your rote memory bank, and your habits. But no matter how you acquire your knowledge or where you store it, what’s most important is that what you know paints a true and rich picture of the realities that will affect your decision. That’s why it always pays to be radically openminded and seek out believable others as you do your learning. Many people have emotional trouble doing this and block the learning that could help them make better decisions. Remind yourself that it’s never harmful to at least hear an opposing point of view. Deciding is the process of choosing which knowledge should be drawn upon—both the facts of this particular “what is” and your broader understanding of the cause-effect machinery that underlies it—and then weighing them to determine a course of action, the “what to do about it.” This involves playing different scenarios through time to visualize how to get an outcome consistent with what you want. To do this well, you need to weigh first-order consequences against second- and third-order consequences, and base your decisions not just on near-term results but on results over time. Failing to consider second- and third-order consequences is the cause of a lot of painfully bad decisions, and it is especially deadly when the first inferior option confirms your own biases. Never seize on the first available option, no matter how good it seems, before you’ve asked questions and explored. To prevent myself from falling into this trap, I used to literally ask myself questions: Am I learning? Have I learned enough yet that it’s time for deciding? After a while, you will just naturally and open-mindedly gather all the relevant info, but in doing so you will have avoided the first pitfall of bad decision making, which is to subconsciously make the decision first and then cherry-pick the data that supports it. #principleoftheday

Most projects fail. But there’s a simple technique to give yours a fighting chance. It’s not a to-do list. It’s not a fancy tool. It’s not a 12-step system. It’s a single question that flips the way you think. Here’s how it works: It’s called a “premortem.” You’ve heard of a postmortem what went wrong after a project dies. A premortem asks: What if we ran that analysis now? Before anything dies. Before the first misstep. Before failure sets in. The premortem comes from psychologist Gary Klein. Here’s how to run one: → Gather your team. → Imagine it’s 2 years in the future. → The project has completely failed. → Ask: What went wrong? No sugarcoating. No happy talk. Start listing the causes of failure. Budget misfire? Wrong team? Lack of buy-in? Scope creep? Missed deadlines? You’ll be shocked how quickly people identify risks—once they feel safe predicting failure. Why this works: It defeats irrational optimism. • It turns hindsight into foresight. • It makes risk visible. • It aligns the team before chaos hits. Because the best time to fix a problem… is before it happens. Pre-mortems don’t require special skills. Just a shift in mindset: Don’t assume success. Assume failure—and reverse-engineer your way out. Ask: What will future-you wish you had done? Then… do that now. I run a premortem for every big project I take on. Writing a book? Premortem. Launching a podcast? Premortem. Planning an event? Premortem. It never guarantees success—but it always makes success more likely. Summary: The Premortem Playbook → Imagine future failure. → List the causes. → Turn those risks into action steps. → Adjust your plan today. It’s one of the most underrated tools in your productivity toolkit. Try it before your next project. You won’t regret it.

One of the toughest tests of your leadership isn't how you handle success. It's how you navigate disagreement. I noticed this in the SEAL Teams and in my work with executives: Those who master difficult conversations outperform their peers not just in team satisfaction, but in decision quality and innovation. The problem? Most of us enter difficult conversations with our nervous system already in a threat state. Our brain literally can't access its best thinking when flooded with stress hormones. Through years of working with high-performing teams, I've developed what I call The Mindful Disagreement Framework. Here's how it works: 1. Pause Before Engaging (10 seconds) When triggered by disagreement, take a deliberate breath. This small reset activates your prefrontal cortex instead of your reactive limbic system. Your brain physically needs this transition to think clearly. 2. Set Psychological Safety (30 seconds) Start with: "I appreciate your perspective and want to understand it better. I also have some different thoughts to share." This simple opener signals respect while creating space for different viewpoints. 3. Lead with Curiosity, Not Certainty (2 minutes) Ask at least three questions before stating your position. This practice significantly increases the quality of solutions because it broadens your understanding before narrowing toward decisions. 4. Name the Shared Purpose (1 minute) "We both want [shared goal]. We're just seeing different paths to get there." This reminds everyone you're on the same team, even with different perspectives. 5. Separate Impact from Intent (30 seconds) "When X happened, I felt Y, because Z. I know that wasn't your intention." This formula transforms accusations into observations. Last month, I used this exact framework in a disagreement. The conversation that could have damaged our relationship instead strengthened it. Not because we ended up agreeing, but because we disagreed respectfully. (It may or may not have been with my kid!) The most valuable disagreements often feel uncomfortable. The goal isn't comfort. It's growth. What difficult conversation are you avoiding right now? Try this framework tomorrow and watch what happens to your leadership influence. ___ Follow me, Jon Macaskill for more leadership focused content. And feel free to repost if someone in your life needs to hear this. 📩 Subscribe to my newsletter here → https://lnkd.in/g9ZFxDJG You'll get FREE access to my 21-Day Mindfulness & Meditation Course packed with real, actionable strategies to lead with clarity, resilience, and purpose.

Want to make better decisions in the age of AI uncertainty? I developed a risk mitigation principle a few years back called 'Worst Case Best Action' (WCBA) that might help: 1. Imagine the worst possible scenario(s)  2. List all potential actions you could take if they happened 3. Score those same actions against the best-case scenario 4. Choose actions that works best Example: "AI takes all jobs" ⏩ Action: Going off-grid, withdrawing from society 📄 Score if best case happens instead: 1/10 (you've isolated yourself for no reason) ⏩ Action: Learning to work alongside AI systems 📄 Score if best case happens instead: 9/10 (you've gained valuable skills regardless) AI can even help with this. Success doesn’t require you perfectly predict the future—pick the action that strengthens your position.

90% of startups don’t fail because of: Bad marketing, a weak team, or even a poor product. They fail because they lack a repeatable decision-making process. Here’s the framework I use to make better, faster decisions in business. I call it “The Iteration Loop.” It’s a structured way to identify what’s working, what’s broken, and what to do next, without getting stuck in endless guesswork. It gives you a systematic way to eliminate bottlenecks, optimize execution, and scale with clarity. Here are the 6 phases: 1. Bottleneck Identification 2. Clarifying the Goal 3. Solution Brainstorming 4. Focused Execution 5. Performance Review 6. Iterate & Improve 1️⃣ Bottleneck Identification Before you can fix anything, you need to identify the real problem. Most entrepreneurs spin their wheels solving the wrong issues because they never dig deep enough. To get clarity, ask: + What's the biggest constraint stopping growth right now? + What metric, if doubled, would create the biggest impact? + What’s preventing us from getting there? If you don’t identify the root problem, every solution you apply will be wasted effort. 2️⃣ Clarifying the Goal Once you know the problem, define the exact outcome you’re solving for. I use a simple Three-Part Goal Formula: 1. What are we trying to achieve? 2. By when? 3. What constraints do we have? Vague goals lead to vague actions. Precision forces progress. 3️⃣ Solution Brainstorming Now, generate every possible solution—without filtering. Most people limit themselves to their existing knowledge, which is why they get stuck. Instead, ask: “If there were no rules, what would I do?” This opens up better, faster, and often simpler solutions you wouldn’t have otherwise considered. 4️⃣ Focused Execution Don’t test everything at once—test one variable at a time. Most teams waste months by making too many changes at once, leading to messy, inconclusive results. Instead, break it down: 1. Test one key assumption. 2. Measure one KPI that proves or disproves it. 3. Execute for a set period, then review. 4. Speed matters. Complexity kills momentum. 5️⃣ Performance Review Your data isn’t just numbers—it’s feedback on your decision-making process. Your job is to analyze: + Did the solution work? + Why or why not? + What does this tell us about our business? Every test refines your ability to make better future decisions. 6️⃣ Iterate & Improve Most companies don’t fail from making the wrong move—they fail from making no moves at all. The only way to win long-term is to keep iterating. Instead of fearing failure, build a culture that rewards learning. Failure + Reflection = Progress. If you aren’t improving your decision-making process, your business will eventually hit a ceiling. That’s why I built The Iteration Loop—so every problem becomes an opportunity for better, faster execution. P.S. If you want the scaling roadmap I used to scale 3 businesses to $100M and beyond, you can get it for free from the link in my profile.

Conflict gets a bad rap in the workplace. Early in my career, I believed conflict had no place in a healthy workplace. As I progressed, I realized that it was quite the contrary. The lack of conflict isn't a sign of a healthy work culture, rather it is an indication that important debates, discussions and differing viewpoints are being disregarded or suppressed. This insight revealed another key aspect: high-performing teams do not shy away from conflict. They embrace it, leveraging diverse opinions to drive optimal outcomes for customers. What sets these teams apart is their ability to handle conflict constructively. So how can this be achieved? I reached out to my friend Andrea Stone, Leadership Coach and Founder of Stone Leadership, for some tips on effectively managing conflict in the workplace. Here's the valuable guidance she provided: 1. Pause: Take a moment to assess your feelings in the heat of the moment. Be curious about your emotions, resist immediate reactions, and take the time to understand the why behind your feelings. 2. Seek the Other Perspective: Engage genuinely, listen intently, show real interest, and ask pertinent questions. Remember to leave your preconceived judgments at the door. 3. Acknowledge Their Perspective: Express your understanding of their viewpoint. If their arguments have altered your perspective, don't hesitate to share this with them. 4. Express Your Viewpoint: If your opinion remains unswayed, seek permission to explain your perspective and experiences. Remember to speak from your viewpoint using "I" statements. 5. Discuss the Bigger Objective: Identify common grounds and goals. Understand that each person might have a different, bigger picture in mind. This process can be taxing, so prepare beforehand. In prolonged conflict situations, don't hesitate to suggest breaks to refresh and refuel mentally, physically, and emotionally. 6. Know Your Limits: If the issue is of significant importance to you, be aware of your boundaries. For those familiar with negotiation tactics, know your BATNA (Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement). 7. Finalize Agreements: Once an agreement has been reached, continue the engagement to agree on responsibilities and timeframes. This ensures clarity on the outcome and commitments made. PS: Approach such situations with curiosity and assume others are trying to do the right thing. 🔁 Useful? I would appreciate a repost. Image Credit: Hari Haralambiev ----- Follow me, tap the (🔔) Omar Halabieh for daily Leadership and Career posts.

Conflict is inevitable. How we manage it is both an art and a science. In my work with executives, I often discuss Thomas Kilmann's five types of conflict managers: (1) The Competitor – Focuses on winning, sometimes forgetting there’s another human on the other side. (2) The Avoider – Pretends conflict doesn’t exist, hoping it disappears (spoiler: it doesn’t). (3) The Compromiser – Splits the difference, often leaving both sides feeling like nobody really wins. (4) The Accommodator – Prioritizes relationships over their own needs, sometimes at their own expense. (5) The Collaborator – Works hard to find a win-win, but it takes effort. The style we use during conflict depends on how we manage the tension between empathy and assertiveness. (a) Assertiveness: The ability to express your needs, boundaries, and interests clearly and confidently. It’s standing your ground—without steamrolling others. Competitors do this naturally, sometimes too much. Avoiders and accommodators? Not so much. (b) Empathy: The ability to recognize and consider the other person’s perspective, emotions, and needs. It’s stepping into their shoes before taking a step forward. Accommodators thrive here, sometimes at their own expense. Competitors? They might need a reminder that the other side has feelings too. Balancing both is the key to successful negotiation. Here’s how: - Know your default mode. Are you more likely to fight, flee, or fold? Self-awareness is step one. - Swap 'but' for 'and' – “I hear your concerns, and I’d like to explore a solution that works for both of us.” This keeps both voices in the conversation. - Be clear, not combative. Assertiveness isn’t aggression; it’s clarity. Replace “You’re wrong” with “I see it differently—here’s why.” - Make space for emotions. Negotiations aren’t just about logic. Acknowledge emotions (yours and theirs) so they don’t hijack the conversation. - Negotiate the process, not just the outcome. If you’re dealing with a competitor, set ground rules upfront. If it’s an avoider, create a low-stakes way to engage. Great negotiators don’t just stick to their natural style—they adapt. Which conflict style do you tend to default to? And how do you balance empathy with assertiveness? #ConflictResolution #Negotiation #Leadership #Empathy #Assertiveness #Leadership #DecisionMaking

Bad decisions aren't usually about intelligence or experience⁣. ⁣ They're about making choices without a clear process⁣. ⁣ The best leaders don't have perfect judgment. ⁣ They have reliable systems that guide them toward better choices consistently⁣. ⁣ Here are 8 frameworks that turn decision-making from guesswork into strategy:⁣ ⁣ 1: The Reverse Advocate Protocol⁣ ↳ Assign someone to argue against your choice before finalizing any major decision.⁣ ↳ Challenging your own bias reveals blind spots and strengthens your final choice.⁣ ⁣ 2: The Energy Drain Audit⁣ ↳ Evaluate how much mental and emotional energy each option will require ongoing.⁣ ↳ High maintenance decisions often fail because they exhaust you before creating results.⁣ ⁣ 3: The Up/Down Impact Chain⁣ ↳ Trace how your decision will influence decisions that come before and after it.⁣ ↳ Single decisions create cascading effects that multiply their importance beyond immediate outcomes.⁣ ⁣ 4: The Constraint Liberation Test⁣ ↳ What would become possible if this decision removes your biggest current obstacle.⁣ ↳ The best decisions don't just solve problems they unlock entirely new opportunities.⁣ ⁣ 5: The Identity Alignment Filter⁣ ↳ Consider which option moves you closer to who you want to become as a leader.⁣ ↳ Decisions shape identity over time, and identity shapes all future decisions.⁣ ⁣ 6: The Network Effect Multiplier⁣ ↳ Evaluate how each choice affects your access to people, information, and opportunities.⁣ ↳ Great decisions don't just create direct value, they position you for better future decisions.⁣ ⁣ 7: The Teaching Test Framework⁣ ↳ Ask which decision you'd be most comfortable explaining and defending to your team.⁣ ↳ Choices you can't teach or justify usually indicate unclear thinking or misaligned values.⁣ ⁣ 8: The Pattern Break Analysis⁣ ↳ Identify whether this decision continues existing patterns or creates new ones.⁣ ↳ Sometimes the best choice is the one that breaks you out of cycles that aren't serving you.⁣ ⁣ What's one framework you use?⁣⁣ ⁣⁣⁣⁣ 💚 Follow Hetali Mehta, MPH for more.⁣⁣⁣⁣ 📌 Share this with your network.⁣⁣⁣⁣⁣⁣⁣⁣⁣ 👇Subscribe to my newsletter: https://lnkd.in/eFPeE4gQ

Do you have a DOOMSDAY version of your forecast? 😱 If not, you may be caught off-guard if things don’t go according to plan Scenario planning is not a nice to have when forecasting… it’s a MUST have. The future is filled with uncertainties, and your job is to keep track of what your business can look like under each scenario so that you can plan accordingly. But how do you prepare different versions of your forecast? Here are the 4 most common ways that I see 1️⃣ CREATING DIFFERENT WORKBOOKS This is how I see most people do scenario planning. They have one forecast…and then another for a rainy-day scenario. Or maybe they have one version that they use for planning (conservative), and one that they use for fundraising (aggressive). This method works for 1 reason - it’s simple to set up. Just take your workbook, make a copy of it, and change all of your inputs. There’s just one problem…this becomes a nightmare to manage, as you now have multiple versions to update. That’s why I’m a much bigger fan of option 2… 2️⃣ DYNAMIC DROPDOWNS What if you had 1 workbook with a simple way to toggle on different scenarios? Now you have only 1 source of truth, but that 1 source of truth can be transformed for different scenarios as you select your dropdown. I love this approach because it’s not too much work to set up once you have a proper lookup formula in place *(note: you are forbidden from using VLOOKUP here, or anywhere else).* 3️⃣ SCENARIO MANAGER This is a cool feature in Excel that few are aware of. Rather than editing just one cell, you can edit however many cells you want with a predefined set of inputs. Simply hit Data > What-If Analysis, and select Scenario Manager 4️⃣ DATA TABLES Want to take your scenario planning to a new level? With Data Tables, you can view the outcome of all scenarios in 1 VIEW 🤩 I love this approach because it gives me strong visibility in all scenarios, rather than forcing me to toggle ot each scenario. The only limitation is that it can slow down your workbook, so select “partial” or “automatic except data tables” in your calculation options === So which version is best to use for scenario planning? To me, it doesn’t matter which you use…what matters is that you keep track of all scenarios and review your performance as close to real time as possible - the quicker you get insights, the quicker you can take action! How do you do scenario planning? Let us know in the comments below 👇

Your research findings are useless if they don't drive decisions. After watching countless brilliant insights disappear into the void, I developed 5 practical templates I use to transform research into action: 1. Decision-Driven Journey Map Standard journey maps look nice but often collect dust. My Decision-Driven Journey Map directly connects user pain points to specific product decisions with clear ownership. Key components: - User journey stages with actions - Pain points with severity ratings (1-5) - Required product decisions for each pain - Decision owner assignment - Implementation timeline This structure creates immediate accountability and turns abstract user problems into concrete action items. 2. Stakeholder Belief Audit Workshop Many product decisions happen based on untested assumptions. This workshop template helps you document and systematically test stakeholder beliefs about users. The four-step process: - Document stakeholder beliefs + confidence level - Prioritize which beliefs to test (impact vs. confidence) - Select appropriate testing methods - Create an action plan with owners and timelines When stakeholders participate in this process, they're far more likely to act on the results. 3. Insight-Action Workshop Guide Research without decisions is just expensive trivia. This workshop template provides a structured 90-minute framework to turn insights into product decisions. Workshop flow: - Research recap (15min) - Insight mapping (15min) - Decision matrix (15min) - Action planning (30min) - Wrap-up and commitments (15min) The decision matrix helps prioritize actions based on user value and implementation effort, ensuring resources are allocated effectively. 4. Five-Minute Video Insights Stakeholders rarely read full research reports. These bite-sized video templates drive decisions better than documents by making insights impossible to ignore. Video structure: - 30 sec: Key finding - 3 min: Supporting user clips - 1 min: Implications - 30 sec: Recommended next steps Pro tip: Create a library of these videos organized by product area for easy reference during planning sessions. 5. Progressive Disclosure Testing Protocol Standard usability testing tries to cover too much. This protocol focuses on how users process information over time to reveal deeper UX issues. Testing phases: - First 5-second impression - Initial scanning behavior - First meaningful action - Information discovery pattern - Task completion approach This approach reveals how users actually build mental models of your product, leading to more impactful interface decisions. Stop letting your hard-earned research insights collect dust. I’m dropping the first 3 templates below, & I’d love to hear which decision-making hurdle is currently blocking your research from making an impact! (The data in the templates is just an example, let me know in the comments or message me if you’d like the blank versions).