Decision-Making In Negotiations

One of the most important applications of GenAI is in foresight. A new report from Paulo Carvalho at IF Insight & Foresight on "How Generative AI Will Transform Strategic Foresight" provides wide-ranging perspectives on the possibilities. Here are some of the most interesting action-oriented frames I found in the report. 🔍 Real-Time Environmental Scanning: Use GenAI to conduct continuous scanning of emerging trends, weak signals, and disruptions across diverse sources. This real-time, dynamic approach allows organizations to stay agile, proactively adjusting strategies as new insights unfold. 🌐 Immersive Scenario Simulations: Utilize GenAI to create interactive VR/AR scenarios that bring potential futures to life. These simulations engage stakeholders deeply, helping them visualize and emotionally connect with complex strategic choices, fostering stronger alignment with future goals. 🔄 Adaptive Scenario Planning: Move from static to adaptive planning by integrating live data into foresight models. Continuous updates based on geopolitical, economic, and technological shifts ensure that scenarios remain relevant and actionable over time. 💬 Enhanced Strategic Conversations: Use GenAI-powered virtual agents to facilitate dynamic "what-if" conversations, helping stakeholders explore a range of possible outcomes. This deepens strategic insights and encourages a proactive approach to complex decision-making. ⚙️ Modeling Complexity and Emergent Behaviors: Use GenAI to simulate complex systems and emergent behaviors, enabling organizations to anticipate interconnected, cascading effects. This prepares them for resilience in the face of unpredictable challenges and non-linear changes. 📊 Multimodal Data Integration for Richer Insights: Leverage GenAI’s capacity to analyze diverse data types (e.g., text, images, audio, video) to gain a nuanced, comprehensive view of trends and risks. This multimodal approach captures intricate patterns that single-source analysis might miss. 🌍 Embrace Multiple Perspectives and Plurality: Design foresight processes that incorporate a wide array of perspectives, blending cross-disciplinary and cultural insights. This inclusive approach creates more robust, innovative scenarios that account for diverse worldviews and challenges assumptions. 🤝 Facilitate Participatory and Co-Creative Approaches: Use GenAI to build interactive platforms that invite diverse stakeholders to co-create and refine scenarios. Real-time collaboration enhances the relevance and inclusivity of strategic models, making them more reflective of shared goals and values. I'll be sharing some of my thoughts on this very important topic in the next little while.

Let's face it. We're not as cool-headed as we think. Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate, brought it into the limelight with his groundbreaking work, "Thinking, Fast and Slow". We've got two systems at play here. System 1: Quick, intuitive. But often erroneous. System 2: Deliberate, analytical. Yet, we don't employ it as often as we should. We're run by biases, deeply ingrained. Think you're immune? The numbers say otherwise. Research shows, 95% of our purchasing decisions are subconscious (Harvard Professor Gerald Zaltman). Your favorite brand of cereal? Probably not a logical choice. That car you bought last year? Primarily driven by emotion, not horsepower specs. We're victims of a prehistoric programming. Survival instincts from our cave-dwelling ancestors. But it's the 21st century. We can't afford to let primitive instincts drive modern decisions. How do we tackle this? Acknowledge it. Know the enemies: confirmation bias, anchoring, overconfidence. They're not just fancy terms. They dictate our decisions, daily. Dissect it. Dive deep. Understand the root. Why did you choose that investment? Because your neighbor did? Or was it a calculated move, backed by data? Rise above it. Develop a system, a checklist. Foster skepticism, encourage debate. Break the chains of instinctive decision-making. Yes, it's hard. But necessary. You're not as rational as you think. Be aware. Be vigilant. Dare to defy your brain's natural inclinations. And the next time your instincts scream? Give it a moment. Let logic catch up.

Mapping Leadership Cultures Into Negotiation Styles Most people see this Harvard Business Review model as a guide to leadership. But what if we translate it into negotiation understanding? That’s where things get truly interesting. This framework helps us predict how different cultures approach negotiations: whether they move fast or slow, whether decisions are made collectively or by the top person, and whether everyone gets a voice or hierarchy rules the table. Egalitarian vs. Hierarchical Egalitarian cultures (Denmark, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway) In negotiations, everyone speaks up. Titles matter less, and transparency is expected. If you skip over a junior team member, you might lose credibility. Hierarchical cultures (China, India, Saudi Arabia, Japan) Negotiations defer to authority. The key is finding the actual decision-maker. Respecting hierarchy is not optional—it’s how you earn trust. Negotiation takeaway: Egalitarian: share data openly, involve all voices, build collaboration. Hierarchical: show deference, be patient, and identify the true authority early. Top-Down vs. Consensual Top-Down (United States, UK, China, Brazil) Fast, decisive negotiations. Leaders expect concise proposals and quick decisions. “Get to the point” is the unspoken rule. Consensual (Germany, Belgium, Japan, Scandinavia) Negotiations are longer, structured, and process-heavy. Group alignment is essential before any commitment. Negotiation takeaway: Top-Down: summarize clearly, highlight outcomes, respect authority. Consensual: provide detail, allow time, and accept multiple review cycles. Quadrant-by-Quadrant Negotiation Styles Egalitarian + Consensual (Nordics, Netherlands): Flat, inclusive, data-driven talks. Slow, but highly durable outcomes. Egalitarian + Top-Down (US, UK, Australia): Pragmatic, fast-moving, with empowered decision-makers. Hierarchical + Top-Down (China, India, Russia, Middle East): Power-centric negotiations. Once leaders agree, things move quickly. Hierarchical + Consensual (Japan, Germany, Belgium): Structured and rule-bound. Decisions are slow but thorough and binding. Practical Advice for Negotiators Map the culture first. Use the model to locate your counterpart before talks begin. Adjust your pace. Push for speed in top-down cultures, slow down in consensual ones. Respect authority. Don’t bypass hierarchy in one culture or ignore inclusivity in another. Real-World Example When negotiating in Germany (consensual + hierarchical), you need: Detailed NegoEconomic calculations. Technical experts at the table. Patience for several review rounds. In contrast, in the United States (egalitarian + top-down): Present financial wins upfront. Keep it concise and bottom-line focused. Expect a quick decision from empowered managers. Final thought: Culture isn’t just a backdrop to negotiation. It shapes how deals are made, how trust is built, and how value is captured. The smartest negotiators map culture first—and strategy second.

Opportunities for Augmenting Organization’s Decisions Are Far Greater Than Opportunities To Automate Existing Human Decisions The image* shows how AI can help us. It has three parts. The smallest circle is about the work machines might do instead of us. The middle one is about what we can already do. The biggest space is new things we could do if we were ready for AI. This tells us that using AI to do new things is a bigger chance than just letting machines do our old jobs. Get Ready for AI To Augment Decisions and Optimize Outcomes The potential for AI to revolutionize decision-making far surpasses its ability to simply automate tasks traditionally done by humans. This is evident when we consider the vast opportunities AI offers to innovate and explore new avenues, as illustrated in the accompanying image. AI as Decision-Making Partner: AI serves as more than just a tool for completing tasks; it acts as a strategic ally in improving decision-making processes across organizations. Think of it as a digital counterpart, collaborating with humans to make informed and intelligent choices, leading to optimal outcomes. Key AI Innovations: 1. #LargeActionModels (LAMs): These advanced AI systems transcend traditional language models by not only understanding text but also executing tasks within digital environments. By combining logical reasoning with learning capabilities, LAMs emulate human actions, paving the way for sophisticated decision-making augmentation being embedded in downstream processes. 2. #AIAgents: These software systems leverage AI techniques to analyze data, interpret information, and autonomously make decisions or provide valuable insights with minimal human intervention, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of decision-making processes. 3. #CollaborativeIntelligence: AI enables organizations to move beyond routine tasks and unlock new value by fostering collaboration between humans and AI systems. Together, they uncover innovative solutions and drive strategic growth initiatives. Practical Recommendations: 1. Embrace AI as Decisioning Partners: Integrate AI insights with human expertise to enhance decision-making effectiveness and foster creativity in problem-solving. 2. Harness #GenAI for #DecisionIntelligence: Utilize AI to explore unconventional decision alternatives and experiment with novel ideas, leveraging its ability to generate innovative solutions. 3. Evaluate options for a #DecisionIntelligencePlatform: Implement explicit decision modeling and a decision-centric user interface to facilitate informed decision-making, enabling your organisation to discover new pathways for growth and strategic advancement. By embracing AI as a decisioning partner, you can leveraging its transformative capabilities and unlock opportunities via decision augmentation, that go well beyond what can be automated. Graphic: “The Turing Trap: The Promise & Peril of Human-Like Artificial Intelligence” ~ Erik Brynjolfsson

When traditional leadership approaches hit the wall of 21st century change, many organizations stagnate, with innovation grinding to a halt and talent heading for the exits. Fast forward to transformative leaders — their organizations thrive amid disruption, turning unprecedented change into competitive advantage while competitors struggle to keep pace. The difference? These leaders abandoned the outdated "know-it-all" paradigm for a "learn-it-all" mindset — treating adaptation not as an occasional necessity but as their core leadership function. The Lesson? Leadership is no longer about maintaining the status quo—it's about continuous transformation and navigating complexity with agility. Common Leadership Adaptation Pitfalls: 📍 Cognitive Rigidity — Clinging to past success strategies instead of embracing new paradigms. 📍 Fear-Based Decision Making — Creating defensive cultures that suppress innovation. 📍 Resistance to Technology — Dismissing disruptive technologies instead of leveraging them. 📍 Hierarchical Thinking — Maintaining control rather than empowering collaborative innovation. 📍 Status Quo Comfort — Avoiding necessary changes until crisis forces action. ✅ How to Develop Adaptive Leadership Capacity: 📍 Intellectual Humility — Acknowledge knowledge gaps and actively seek diverse perspectives. 📍 Technological Fluency — Develop deep understanding of AI, automation, and digital transformation. 📍 Intrapreneurial Mindsets — Create safe spaces for calculated risk-taking and bottom-up innovation. 📍 Emotional Intelligence — Navigate complex human dynamics with empathy and self-awareness. 📍 Continuous Learning — Invest in personal and organizational growth as a strategic priority. Adaptation isn't a leadership challenge — it's the essence of modern leadership itself. 📩 Get practical leadership strategies every Sunday in my free newsletter: CATAPULT. 🧑💻 Want to become the best LEADERSHIP version of yourself in the next 30 days? Book a 1:1 Growth Strategy Call: https://lnkd.in/gVjPzbcU #Leadership #AdaptiveLeadership #FutureOfWork #ExecutiveCoaching #OrganizationalChange

Should You Trust Your Gut When Hiring? The Science Behind Intuition I spent all of last week interviewing candidates for a senior sales leadership role at a fintech firm. After the final interview, the hiring manager turned to me and said: "I can't put my finger on it, but something feels off about that candidate." That comment sparked an interesting chat about the role of intuition in hiring decisions. How much should we trust that gut feeling? Your intuition isn't random – it's your brain processing thousands of data points from past experiences. When you get that feeling about a candidate, your brain is noticing tiny signals that match patterns from previous hires who succeeded or failed. But here's the catch: intuition can be incredibly useful OR dangerously misleading. I've seen gut feelings help hiring managers spot fantastic talent that looked ordinary on paper. I've also watched those same feelings lead to terrible hires based on nothing more than unconscious bias. The most successful hiring managers I work with use a balanced approach: 1. They listen to their intuition as a starting point 2. They back it up with structured assessment and evidence 3. They question their gut reactions, especially negative ones For our retained clients, we offer psychometric testing as another layer of assessment. These tools help quantify personality traits, working styles and cognitive abilities that might support or challenge your gut feeling. And it works. I've seen countless cases where these tests flagged concerns that intuition missed, or confirmed strengths that the interview process already highlighted. The research backs this up. Studies show that decisions made with a combination of analytical thinking and informed intuition outperform purely data-driven or purely intuitive approaches. So next time you're interviewing a candidate and get that feeling – don't ignore it, but don't rely solely on it either. Ask yourself: "What specific behaviours am I reacting to?" Then test your intuition against objective criteria. The best hires happen when we use our gut feeling as a compass, not as the entire map. #Recruitment #HiringTips #TalentAcquisition

They thought they had no choice. That’s why they almost gave in. I was in the room when it happened. A client (let’s call them Pollocks Pipelay) had been working with the same supplier for years. Solid relationship, reliable service. But one day, the supplier walked in and said: "𝙒𝙚’𝙧𝙚 𝙞𝙣𝙘𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙥𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙚𝙨 𝙗𝙮 𝟯𝟬%. 𝙉𝙤𝙣-𝙣𝙚𝙜𝙤𝙩𝙞𝙖𝙗𝙡𝙚." Immediate silence and panic. They needed this supplier - They started calculating how to absorb the cost - There was no backup - No safety net Then I asked the team: "𝙒𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙝𝙖𝙥𝙥𝙚𝙣𝙨 𝙞𝙛 𝙮𝙤𝙪 𝙬𝙖𝙡𝙠?" Nobody had an answer! I aimed to shift their view from fear to power Most negotiators consider a Fallback Plan (BATNA) a concept The best negotiators 𝙬𝙚𝙖𝙥𝙤𝙣𝙞𝙨𝙚 it. - We took a step back - We mapped the fundamental alternatives - We found a smaller but reliable European supplier Was it perfect? No Was it good enough to remove the fear of walking away? Absolutely At the next meeting, Pollocks Pipelay didn’t beg for a price adjustment Instead, they confidently said: "𝙒𝙚’𝙧𝙚 𝙬𝙚𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙤𝙪𝙧 𝙤𝙥𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨, 𝙗𝙪𝙩 𝙬𝙚 𝙬𝙖𝙣𝙩 𝙩𝙤 𝙢𝙖𝙠𝙚 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙬𝙤𝙧𝙠" You should have seen the supplier’s face The power dynamic instantly flipped: - Pollocks Pipelay secured better payment terms - The supplier dropped their price increase entirely - They knew they’d never be backed into a corner again I see this mistake constantly. Smart professionals walking into negotiations without a strategic fallback plan → 85% of negotiators lack a strong fallback plan →Those who anchor first with a solid BATNA secure deals 26% closer to their goals →Having a fallback plan reduces bad deals by 40% while preserving relationships Yet so many people still fear walking away. Make your Fallback Plan your power move 1️⃣ Before the negotiation: Identify at least two real alternatives. Don’t rely on assumptions. Map your ZOPA (Zone of Possible Agreement). Study their BATNA—what are their options if you walk? 2️⃣ During the negotiation: Signal strength (“We’re weighing options, but I’d like to find common ground”) Stay flexible—adjust if new information emerges. 3️⃣ After the negotiation: Document what worked. Refine your BATNA for next time. The Best Negotiators Don’t Fear Walking Away—𝗧𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗙𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗦𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗟𝗲𝘀𝘀. Don't be aggressive in negotiations. Just know your worth and your options. Think about your negotiations. Do you have a Fallback Plan? Or just hope for the best? Have you ever been in a deal where you felt trapped but found a way out? Or maybe you’ve walked away, and later realized it was the best move you could’ve made? Drop your story in the comments. Let’s talk about how having (or not having) a fallback plan (BATNA) changed your outcome.

🐛Data to Decisions🦋 One impactful way cloud and AI-native technology is transforming modern business operations is through the automation and operationalization of decision intelligence at scale. Traditionally, decision-making in cybersecurity, risk, and digital operations has been reactive, fragmented, and inconsistent. But with systems that are integrated at data level, businesses can collect, process, and contextualize data in near real-time, enabling automated, SLA-aligned decisions that are explainable, auditable, and constantly improving. This isn’t just analytics -- it’s decision-as-a-service, where insights are not only generated, but engineered into daily operations via repeatable playbooks, dynamic decision models, and integrated customer feedback loops. Enterprise ops have a real opportunity to embed intelligence into the fabric of the business -- turning data into continuous, trusted decisions. 🦋

Steve Jobs once famously said: "Have the courage to follow your heart and intuition. They somehow already know what you truly want to become. Everything else is secondary." Today, decision-making is often dominated by data and analysis. While logical reasoning and strategic planning are critical, there's another, often underappreciated, ally in a leader's toolkit: 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. What is Intuition? 🤔 Intuition is that inner voice, the subtle nudge, the gut feeling that guides us when logic seems insufficient. It's shaped by our past experiences, values, and beliefs, acting as a rapid-response mechanism to the complexities we face. How does Intuition help? 🚀 Speed and Efficiency: Intuitive leaders make swift decisions without over-analysis. Like when driving a car, you might instinctively change lanes to avoid an obstacle without consciously analyzing the situation. 💡 Innovation and Creativity: Intuition leads to breakthrough ideas and innovative solutions. Steve Jobs trusted his intuition to create products that revolutionized the tech industry. ❤️ Empathy and Connection: Leaders who trust their intuition are more attuned to their teams' needs and emotions, fostering a more empathetic workplace. Ratan Tata exemplifies this compassionate leadership style. But it doesn't come without its share of flip sides. ⚖️ Bias and Filters: Intuition is influenced by our filters—past experiences, values, and beliefs—which can sometimes lead to biased decisions. 🔍 Balancing Act: Relying solely on intuition without evidence can be risky. Effective leaders balance intuition and data-driven analysis. Imagine driving solely by instinct without checking the fuel gauge or speedometer —intuition plays a role, but data is essential for safe driving. 👥 Perception and Trust: In some organizational cultures, intuition-based decisions may be questioned or undervalued, making it crucial for leaders to communicate the rationale behind their intuitive choices. Can a leader cultivate Intuition? Good news: Yes! 🌟 🧘 Mindfulness and Reflection: Regular mindfulness practices can enhance awareness of intuitive insights, helping leaders recognize and trust their gut feelings. 📚 Learning from Experience: Reflecting on past decisions and outcomes can refine intuitive skills, making them more reliable over time. 🤝 Encouraging a Culture of Trust: Building a culture that values and trusts intuitive insights can empower teams and foster innovative thinking. Intuition in leadership is about balancing inner wisdom with data and dialogue. This helps leaders navigate complexity confidently and inspire their teams to greater heights. How do you harness intuition in your leadership journey? Share your thoughts and experiences in the comments! Enjoyed this post? Click the 🔔 to follow for more inspiring stories. #Leadership #Intuition #DecisionMaking #LeadershipDevelopment #Mindfulness #Innovation

As a business leader or #founder which is the most useful for making decisions, intuition or data? Qualitative ‘gut’ feel or quantitative ‘data-driven’ clarity? The Ammophila wasp deposits her eggs in paralyzed victims - beetles, spiders, caterpillars - to ensure the survival of her species. In selecting the right nerve to paralyze (on the body of the victim), even as there are varying shapes and sizes of host, the Ammophila wasp has to be perfectly precise to avoid killing the victim. This sting happens with incredible speed. Incredible speed. Instantaneous. No calculation. All intuition. Intuition from doing it over and over and over and over again. And that’s where the data comes from. Repetition. I’ve lived the last five years, and several years before that at my previous company, making dozens of critical decisions daily. The reps of intuition lead to a data set that feeds the intuition. What #product updates should we prioritize? Should I hire this designer? Should I work to reverse the loss of this customer account or let it go? What should I highlight in this pitch to this #vc? I use 'gut'/qualitative info for exploration and discovery. And use data/quantitative data to measure and test. The more decisions you make based on gut, the more feedback you get (in the form of outputs or outcomes). The more feedback you get, the more data feeds into your intuition for your next decision. The accumulation of #data through intuitive #decisionmaking to further feed intuition eventually leads to mastery. And isn’t mastery what we all aspire to? Lesson? Be more like the Ammophila wasp. How do you make decisions?