Problem-Solving in Uncertain Contexts

You’re the PM. Everyone expects clarity. But what if clarity doesn’t exist and you’re filled with doubt? In most organizations, product managers are positioned as the source of certainty. Teams look to you for direction, stakeholders want answers, and silence gets uncomfortable very quickly when none exists yet. But uncertainty is not a failure. It’s a feature of complex systems. When we faced a decision about sunsetting a legacy feature a few years back, the tension wasn’t just in the data. It was in the roles, expectations, and social dynamics around the decision. Usage was low, impact unclear, and strategic clients depended on it. Everyone had an opinion, and no one had enough information. As a leader, I could have made the call alone. But that would have ignored the very thing that makes product work valuable: the collective learning process. So we approached it as a team. The product trio ran quick discovery, engineers surfaced edge cases, and I stayed close. Not to control, but to help the team stay focused on the right questions. What we discovered within a week was simple but powerful: the feature solved a narrow but legitimate need for a small segment. But for everyone else, it added unnecessary complexity. So instead of killing it right away, we reframed the solution. We removed it from the default experience and repackaged it as a modular add-on for clients who needed it. As a result, activation improved, client retention held, and we simplified the product without sacrificing value. That experience reminded me that product leadership isn’t just about decision-making. It’s about holding space for ambiguity, guiding the process of sense-making, and reducing uncertainty together. Over time, I’ve found myself coming back to the same few moves in situations like this, especially when things feel messy, unclear, or politically sensitive. It’s not a perfect formula, but it helps me to stay grounded and create forward motion without forcing false certainty. I call it “Leading Through Fog”: 1. Start with the need and not with the feature. Understand what users are trying to achieve and not just what they use. 2. Involve the product trio. Collaboration reveals blind spots faster than any kind of analysis. 3. Validate quickly. Knowledge enables progress. 4. Frame the trade-offs. Ambiguity shrinks when consequences are made visible. 5. Solve with intention. Sometimes clarity comes not from answers, but from the way you shape the problem. Uncertainty isn’t just a product problem. It’s a human one. It activates fear, triggers old roles, and invites performative certainty. Especially in teams that are under pressure or trying to prove themselves. But great product leadership doesn’t rush to silence the doubt. It creates the conditions for learning instead, without ego, without drama, and without pretending that the fog isn’t there. That’s what earns trust. And over time, that’s what builds teams that can handle real complexity together.

Want to thrive in uncertainty? Stop planning for every scenario and start rehearsing for the unexpected. GE's former CEO Jack Welch once gave the highest bonus to a leader whose division fell short of targets, even as other GE divisions had exceeded theirs. Why? The division had outperformed its competition in the face of extremely tough external challenges. In your rehearsal scenarios, practice which KPIs need to swing and consider setting a range within which they can do so. 🤔 Reflect on this: 1️⃣ What are the most critical skills and mindsets you need to develop to navigate ambiguity? 2️⃣ How can you create a "rehearsal" space to experiment and learn from failure? 3️⃣ What are the biggest obstacles to your ability to adapt, and how can you overcome them? 💡 Tips for leaders: 👉 Practice "improvisational thinking" to build your ability to respond to unexpected challenges: Develop the ability to think on your feet by engaging in activities that require creative problem-solving, such as brainstorming, role-playing, or even improvisational theater. 👉 Engage in "pre-mortem" exercises to anticipate and prepare for potential failures: Conduct hypothetical failure analyses to identify potential risks and develop contingency plans, allowing you to prepare for and mitigate potential setbacks. 👉 Focus on building your "change muscle" through regular experimentation and learning: Regularly challenge yourself to try new approaches, learn from failures, and adapt to new information, building your ability to navigate and thrive in uncertain environments. The key to surviving sustained change isn't anticipating every possibility - it's developing the skills and mindset to adapt and thrive in the face of uncertainty. #leadership #resilience #coachingtips #lifecoaching

Recently, a coachee was struggling with working with her boss. She was not sure what her boss thought of her. The recent business merger had increased anxiety. The boss was not the most articulate creature either. She kept sending mixed signals which my coachee could not seem to decode. And my coachee wasn't sure whether asking direct questions would work. All in all there was a lot of confusion on what needs to be done. Instead of getting into solution mode, we got into understanding mode. What was the 'nature' of the problem we were facing? Could we get clarity on the question before we jumped to find answers? It's essence? The essence was 'complexity'. Where there are no right or wrong answers. Where we could not know the result without taking the action. And we were afraid to take action because we were uncertain if we would get the result we wanted. Stuck! So the question essentially was: How do we decide what to do when we do not know what to do? "That is precisely the issue. Though it is much clearer now", she said. "How can one do something when one has no clue what to do!" "So what I am hearing is: One cannot do anything useful when one has no clue what to do" I said. She nodded. "Is that a fact or an assumption?", I inquired. "Its just logical! its a fact!" She exclaimed. "OK, have there been instances in your life where you had no clue what was happening, but you did something anyway, and it worked?" Long pause. "You have a kid, don't you?" I asked. "Yes???" "So when she was a small...and cried...did she tell you exactly what was needed?" "Not really. How could she? But I tried to understand her.." "OK so observation #1. You had no expectation from her to tell you exactly what she needed. Do you think that would have freed up your energy to understand?" "Yes, for sure" she admitted "Does that mean you now understood exactly what she needed, and you did it, and poof! the problem went away?" "No. But it did reduce MY pressure too. Cos I did not expect MYSELF to understand either!" "Perfect! That's obervation #2. Then did answers suddenly dawn? What did you do? Did you read a book to get the perfect answer?" "No!! At first I guessed, I tried a few things...some worked, some did not. Eventually I started finding patterns...and we started clicking" It was evident 30 seconds prior that the penny had already dropped. Finding the answer to her boss problem was then easy. It was more about opening up to a "Experiment and find out" way in life, as opposed to "Point and shoot" approach. Mostly we have the answers. But we are not looking in the right places. Plus, parenting might be the best course in complexity management anyway. 😊

A few years ago, I was asked to advise on a major transformation programme involving multiple governments and private sector partners. The brief was ambitious. But the biggest challenge wasn’t the technology or even the funding — it was the pace and unpredictability of change. What worked in January was irrelevant by June. The world around us had shifted, and with it, the rules of leadership. That’s when I turned to VUCA — a concept first developed by the US Army War College after the Cold War to describe the world as Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous. It proved highly instructive then, and it is even more relevant now. Volatility: Rapid, unexpected changes Uncertainty: A lack of reliable foresight Complexity: Interconnected challenges with no obvious solutions Ambiguity: Situations open to multiple interpretations In the context of AI, shifting global power, platform economies and evolving regulatory systems, leaders today must rethink their approach. The old models of control and predictability are no longer sufficient. Here is how I’ve seen effective leaders respond: 🔹 Volatility → Vision Provide clarity of purpose. A strong vision can ground a team even when the terrain shifts. 🔹 Uncertainty → Understanding Keep listening. Develop a habit of structured learning and broad awareness. 🔹 Complexity → Clarity Distil what truly matters. Strip back the noise. Communicate simply and deliberately. 🔹 Ambiguity → Agility Act with intent. Build teams and systems that can adapt without waiting for perfect certainty. In this environment, we need leaders who are not only digitally fluent, but also: Strategic in thought and action Comfortable with nuance Ethically grounded Resilient under pressure It’s not about having all the answers. It’s about asking better questions, staying grounded, and moving forward with purpose. How are you preparing yourself — or your team — to lead through uncertainty? #VUCA #Leadership #Strategy #AI #FutureOfWork #DigitalTransformation #Resilience #Technology #PublicSector #OrganisationalChange

In a world where AI can surface information in seconds, the real differentiator isn’t knowledge hoarding—it’s the ability to move forward when the path is unclear. The professionals I admire most don’t freeze in the face of ambiguity, nor do they disappear into endless research. Instead, they: - Assemble solutions from the “known-knowns” at hand - Engage stakeholders early, inviting feedback over perfection - Iterate quickly, learning in motion rather than waiting for certainty This is the cognitive edge that matters in the era of AI: - Not waiting for a blank-slate answer, but building momentum with partial clarity - Using AI to avoid getting stuck at local maxima, and instead, charting a path toward global breakthroughs As you reflect on your own approach, ask yourself: "Are you cultivating the agility to act amid uncertainty, or waiting for perfect information that may never arrive?" The future belongs to those who can harness AI as an amplifier—not a crutch—and who see ambiguity not as a barrier, but as an invitation to lead. #AI #Leadership #ProblemSolving #FutureOfWork #Innovation

No decision you face in business or life will come with perfect clarity or complete certainty. Embrace the reality that decisions involve risk. Waiting for the “perfect solution” often leads to missed opportunities or worsening problems. It gives your competition the chance to get ahead of you. Here are three steps to take to be decisive as a leader amid uncertainty: First, recognize that indecision carries its own risks. Allowing dysfunction to persist can hurt morale, stall progress, and undermine the mission. Leaders must assess the cost of inaction just as seriously as the cost of making the wrong decision. Second, act with the best information available. Swiftly making small, iterative decisions in the direction that seems to move towards the overarching goal and desired end state. Then, reevaluate the situation and gather new information when it becomes available and use that to make adjustments where needed. Finally, understand that most decisions aren’t final. Most decisions are a step forward, not an endpoint. Leadership requires reassessing outcomes and adjusting course as new information emerges. This approach transforms risk into opportunity. This week, identify a decision you’ve been delaying. Do you truly lack critical information? Or, is fear of imperfection holding you back? If you lack critical information, take action and gather it. Take the smallest iterative step you can in the direction that seems most effective, based upon the best information you have. Then, reevaluate. Every week, we provide free combat-tested leadership lessons that help teams lead and win in our newsletter, the Extreme Ownership Rundown. Join here: https://lnkd.in/g9ugtKrH

Problem Solving: The Art of Navigating Complexity in the AI Era I've learned that in enterprise settings, problems rarely come with neat definitions or clear boundaries. They're messy, interconnected, and often evolving as we work on them, and solutions dont appear magically; you have to work on them from multiple perspectives. While AI excels at solving well-defined problems, the uniquely human skill lies in unpacking complexity by breaking down ambiguous challenges into workable components. This means becoming comfortable with uncertainty, asking better questions, and resisting the urge to jump to solutions. It's like compound interest for problem-solving; the more you invest in understanding the problem space, the greater your returns in solution effectiveness. The most effective problem solvers I work with have mastered four capabilities:   1. Deconstructing multi-layered problems into manageable pieces   2. Studying the problem from different perspectives.   3. Iterating rapidly between hypothesis and testing, and   4. Synthesizing insights across domains and stakeholders. However, I've discovered that AI can serve as an exceptional thought partner in this iterative process. When facing complex challenges, I utilize AI to stress-test my hypotheses, explore potential blind spots I might miss, and rapidly prototype various solutions to the problem. It's like having an always-on collaborator, and a whole slew of subject matter experts in different domains who can help you think through multiple scenarios simultaneously. The future belongs to leaders who can dance with ambiguity while maintaining human agency in defining problems and making decisions. With AI as our thought partner, every one of us can now possess superpowers, accessing knowledge in any domain and accelerating thinking cycles that once took weeks and months to complete, now into minutes and hours. Foundry for AI by Rackspace (FAIR™) D Scott Sanders Ben Blanquera #ProblemSolving #AI #Leadership #CriticalThinking #EnterpriseSolutions #FutureOfWork #ComplexSystems

Embrace Uncertainty Uncertainty isn’t a problem to eliminate. It’s the reality we work in. Trouble comes when we treat information as if it gives absolute answers. It rarely does. Every piece of information carries assumptions, limitations, and missing context. Embracing uncertainty means: • Acknowledging that data doesn’t speak for itself • Being transparent about confidence and doubt • Staying open to multiple explanations before acting This doesn’t weaken decisions. It strengthens them because acknowledging uncertainty improves interpretation and lowers the risk of false conclusions. What this looks like in practice: • Avoid presenting information as proof. Instead, present it as evidence that supports (or challenges) a working idea. • Pair every conclusion with its assumptions. Make it clear what would change the interpretation. • Frame decisions as adaptable, not fixed—allowing space for updates without eroding trust. • Encourage conversation around uncertainty. When doubt is shared openly, teams are more likely to stay aligned. When we stop chasing certainty and start working with uncertainty, we make stronger decisions. We also build greater trust, because the reasoning is clear, the limitations are acknowledged, and the process for adapting is visible to everyone. Follow @sportscinetwork on X and Instagram for more practical frameworks and updates from The Sport Science Handbook (update: Coming September 2025).