Most customer research still asks people to rate products, yet in the real world people choose one option from a small set. Choice Based Conjoint turns that reality into data by showing repeated sets of plausible products and recording the selected alternative. Each set is a clean trade off. By varying brand size and price over tasks you learn how people swap one thing for another when they must pick one. A practical workflow starts with scoping the decision. List the attributes that actually move choice and keep levels realistic. Include a none option so people can walk away. Build 8 to 12 choice sets per respondent with 3 or 4 alternatives per set. Randomize order and avoid obviously dominated options. In your data, store one row per alternative per task per respondent with a chosen flag, and keep factors coded with clear base levels. Begin estimation with a multinomial logit. Treat price as continuous so the sign should be negative. Inspect the output. Coefficients are part worths on the logit scale and are interpreted relative to the base level. Signs tell direction and larger absolute values mean stronger effects. Standard errors and z values tell you which effects are clearly different from zero. Before trusting results, run quick checks that each task has exactly one chosen alternative and that there is no strong position bias. Turn coefficients into business language. Odds ratios show how much a level raises or lowers the odds of choice. To talk money, divide an attribute effect by the absolute price slope to get a rough willingness to pay. Then simulate. Create a table with the alternatives you plan to sell, compute utilities, convert to predicted shares, and compare scenarios such as a small price cut or a feature change. Most audiences care more about these simulations than the coefficient table. People do not all think alike, so model heterogeneity when the stakes warrant it. Mixed logit lets coefficients vary across people. The model reports mean effects and standard deviations of those effects. When a standard deviation is similar to or larger than the mean you likely have preference reversals in the population and that is a signal to consider multiple variants in the lineup or targeted offers. When respondents answer only a handful of tasks, reach for Hierarchical Bayes. HB shrinks noisy individual estimates toward a population distribution so you recover stable person level utilities without needing long surveys. You also get posterior draws that let you show uncertainty bands around shares and willingness to pay. Common pitfalls are easy to avoid Do not compute per dollar willingness to pay if you dummy coded price levels Do not mix long and wide formats in the same pipeline Do not overload the design with too many attributes for a fixed survey length Do not report aggregate means alone when the mixed logit says heterogeneity is large Tie every finding to a simulated shelf or price test and make a concrete recommendation.
Market Share Analysis Techniques
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Summary
Market share analysis techniques are methods used to understand how brands or products compete for sales within a market, helping businesses see where they stand compared to their competitors. These approaches can range from survey-based models and mathematical formulas to distribution-focused metrics, making it easier to spot growth opportunities and plan strategies.
- Compare purchase habits: Analyze both how often customers buy and their preferred brands to reveal patterns that drive overall market share, not just popularity.
- Measure sales distribution: Assess your brand’s presence in stores and the importance of those locations to understand whether you’re reaching customers where they’re most likely to buy.
- Simulate real-world choices: Use choice-based surveys and data modeling to predict how changes to product features or pricing could shift market share and consumer demand.
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(FMCG Blueprint) 📢 Decoding Nielsen Metrics: Market Share, Share Among Handlers, Numeric Distribution & Weighted Distribution – Explained with a Biscuit Case Study 🍪 Let’s break down some Nielsen metrics that are core to our FMCG game. To make it relatable, let’s talk about biscuits – everyone’s favorite tea-time companion in India. Imagine a market with multiple biscuit brands battling it out on supermarket shelves. Here’s how these metrics would apply: 1️⃣ Market Share: This tells us how much of the total biscuit market belongs to a specific brand. • Case Study: If the total biscuit sales in a city are ₹1 crore a month and our hero brand, Bharat Biscuits, sells ₹20 lakh worth, their market share is 20% (₹20L/₹1Cr). 2️⃣ Share Among Handlers (SAH): This shows the market share of your brand only among stores that stock your biscuits. • Case Study: Out of 1,000 stores in the city, Bharat Biscuits is available in 300. If these 300 stores generate ₹40 lakh in total biscuit sales, and Bharat Biscuits contributes ₹20 lakh, their SAH is 50% (₹20L/₹40L). 3️⃣ Numeric Distribution (ND): This measures the percentage of stores stocking your brand compared to all stores in the market. • Case Study: Out of 1,000 stores, Bharat Biscuits is available in 300. Their Numeric Distribution is 30% (300/1,000). 4️⃣ Weighted Distribution (WD): This measures the sales potential of the stores stocking your brand. It’s about being present in stores where customers actually buy biscuits. • Case Study: Out of the 1,000 stores, 200 premium stores contribute 70% of total biscuit sales (₹70 lakh). If Bharat Biscuits is available in all these premium stores, their Weighted Distribution is 70%. Why Do These Metrics Matter? Let’s say Bharat Biscuits wants to grow. Should they: • Focus on increasing ND by entering more stores (even those with low sales)? • Or aim to boost WD by targeting high-sales stores? The choice depends on their strategy – go broad or go deep? Final Takeaway: In biscuits (and FMCG), it’s not just about being everywhere (ND); it’s about being where it matters most (WD). Market Share and SAH then tell you how well you’re performing in these stores. Remember, just like you wouldn’t settle for a soggy biscuit, don’t settle for just “presence” in stores. Aim for the right shelves, at the right places, at the right time! What’s your go-to strategy for distribution wins? Let’s discuss! #FMCG #SalesStrategy #NielsenMetrics #IndianFMCG
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𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗡𝗕𝗗-𝗗𝗶𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗵𝗹𝗲𝘁 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹 – 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟳 (𝗕𝘂𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆 + 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲) A quick review – the NBD-Dirichlet model has two key parts: 1️⃣ The 𝗡𝗕𝗗 part that describes the average frequency of individual buyers and how those purchase frequencies are distributed across all category buyers. Essentially, what does the mix of heavy and light buyers looks like. 2️⃣ The 𝗗𝗶𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗵𝗹𝗲𝘁 part that describes how individual buyers hold unique preferences for different category brands and how those brand preferences are distributed across all category buyers. The Dirichlet model gives you relative brand preferences across all buyers. This is what you would get if you did a "Brand Preference Survey" across your market. --- We might do a survey of brand preference and find: • Brand A ➜ preferred 40% of the time • Brand B ➜ preferred 37% • Brand C ➜ preferred 23% But if we look at actual relative market share based on total units purchased, we find: • Brand A ➜ 25% market share • Brand B ➜ 41% • Brand C ➜ 34% Buyer preference DOES NOT translate into overall market share ranking. This is illustrated in the graphic below 👇 --- 𝗪𝗛𝗬 𝗗𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 ≠ 𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗦𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲? Because different buyers have different purchase frequencies. Market share emerges from the combination of purchases made by both light and heavy buyers based on individual relative brand preferences. If heavy buyers prefer different brands than light buyers, then brand preference will not translate into total units sold. Example: the largest CRM customers (heavy buyers) disproportionately prefer Salesforce (80%+) over the average of all CRM buyers (~35%) As a result, Salesforce has: 👉 20x more revenue than Hubspot 👉 5x more market share 👉 But only ~150,000 accounts vs. Hubspot with ~216,000 accounts More heavy buyers (large enterprises with high seat counts) prefer Salesforce...while more light buyers (SMBs with small seat counts) prefer HubSpot. This is an example of why we need to look at BOTH purchase frequency (or size) PLUS brand preference to understand how relative 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗦𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 emerges! ✅ It's this combining of the two halves of the model (𝗡𝗕𝗗 + 𝗗𝗶𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗵𝗹𝗲𝘁) that gives the model its power to describe actual market outcomes! --- A note on how this applies to B2B: The NBD-Dirichlet model tends to be talked about ONLY in the language of B2C CPG products (how often do people buy a box of laundry detergent) But heavy vs. light buyers equally applies to areas like B2B SaaS, where heavy vs. light describes things like average seat counts. --- Next, in 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟴, I examine the significant limitations and narrow contexts where you can apply the NBD-Dirichlet model. For example, it cannot tell you ANYTHING about "How Brands Grow" (in spite of books with such dubious titles)