Data-Backed Strategies For Pricing Optimization

"Is $20/month too much for our product?" Instead of guessing, we used the Van Westendorp method to find our pricing sweet spot. 4 questions revealed exactly what users would pay (and we haven't touched our pricing since). Here's the framework any founder can steal: 1. Send a survey to actual users, not prospects We surveyed people already using Gamma. They understood the real value of our product, not hypothetical value. Too many founders survey their waitlist or randomly select people who have never used their product. That's like asking someone who's never driven about car prices. 2. Ask these 4 specific questions - At what price would this be too expensive for you to consider it? - At what price is it expensive but still delivering value? - At what price does it feel like a bargain? - At what price is it so cheap you'd question if it's reliable? These create bookends for perceived value. You're mapping the entire spectrum of price psychology, not just asking "what would you pay?" 3. Plot the responses and find where the lines intersect Graph responses from lots of users. Where "too expensive" and "too cheap" lines cross: that's your acceptable range. Where "expensive but fair" meets "bargain": this is your optimal price point. 4. Test within the range, don't just pick the middle The intersection gives you a range, not a number. We ran pricing experiments within that range to see actual conversion rates. A survey shows willingness to pay; testing reveals actual behavior. 5. Lean towards generous (especially for product-led growth) We chose to be more generous with AI usage than our "optimal" price suggested. Word-of-mouth growth matters more than maximizing initial revenue. Not everything shows up in the numbers. 6. Lock it in and stop tinkering Once you find the sweet spot through data, stick with it. We haven't changed pricing in 2 years. Every month debating pricing is a month not improving product. Remember: pricing is a signal, not just a number (Image: First Principles)

Uncomfortable Truth for Pricing Strategy: Customer value isn't guesswork. Think pricing is all about costs? Think again. Online value research reveals what customers truly value and are willing to pay for. Here's what happens when companies embrace value-based pricing: → True Value Discovery A vending machine company discovered untapped value in their premium service and better-quality product. Result? $40M additional annual revenue with no loss in sales. → Customer Understanding One dashcam manufacturer found that women had completely different value drivers than men and were willing to pay 25-30% more. Understanding this doubled their projected sales. → Market Segmentation By matching prices to different market segments' willingness to pay, a corporate training provider drove 40% revenue growth. → Consistent Results Our client successes show the power of value-based pricing: - SaaS company raised prices 41% without losing customers - Streaming service doubled revenue through strategic pricing - Industrial components manufacturer grew sales 20% while raising prices 15% The truth? When you understand true customer value, pricing becomes your most powerful growth lever. Are you ready to let data drive your pricing decisions? #PricingStrategy #BusinessGrowth #ValueBasedPricing

I've seen countless companies relying on outdated models or gut instincts for price changes. That often leads to tactical, knee-jerk pricing, missed profits, or constant battles to justify pricing & promotional plans to supply chain partners. I just recorded a quick video explaining exactly how we combine four different approaches to model elasticity accurately: 1. Double Machine Learning (DML) - Delivers a robust causal estimate by predicting sales and price from confounders, then regressing the residuals. - We typically build one DML model per SKU. In our experience, this often reflects real-world behavior best. 2. Log-Log regression models - It is simple and interpretable - perfect if you have lots of historical data, a high volume of transactions, or price variation. - The log price coefficient directly translates to elasticity. It is quick to implement, though it often oversimplifies and is not a good method for B2B. 3. ElasticNet - A regularized linear model balancing Lasso and Ridge methods. - If you have many variables, such as our promos, competitor promos, distribution, comp distribution, etc., it helps prevent overfitting. 4. Random Forest - Handles non-linearities pretty well without having to do complex data engineering. - We use price perturbation, simulating different price points to see how predicted demand changes, thus estimating implied elasticities. In the video, I also share how we compare the four methods, track metrics like RMSE or MAPE, and deliver scenario-based recommendations about price, promotions, and competitive moves, helping you go from reactive to proactive pricing. The real payoff is that you can: 1. Proactively manage pricing: estimate the impact of competitor actions and optimize your strategy. 2. Maximize promotional ROI: estimate what truly drives incremental volume vs. what's wasted spend. 3. Earn insights-backed credibility: support your pricing with robust elasticity metrics that show retailers how you got to your recommendations. I'd love to hear your thoughts. If you're ready to take a deeper look at these elasticity models (complete with a whitepaper, sample code, and practical examples), check out the comment section for links and more details!