Understanding The Lifecycle Stages Of Ecommerce Customer Segments

I just found the exact moment customers decide to buy again vs. disappear forever. It's not when you think. After years building retention strategies, I thought I knew the key touchpoints: → Purchase confirmations → Shipping updates → First unboxing experience Standard retention playbook stuff. Then, a brand I work with ran customer data through Triple Whale's Moby AI. It completely flipped my assumptions. Moby analyzed 12 months of customer behavior. What it found shocked me. The decision point isn't in the first 30 days. It's not even in the first purchase experience. It happens at day 47. During the second browse session. Before they even add to cart again. Here's what Moby spotted: → Customers who browse NEW categories (not their original purchase) within 45-50 days = 89% repeat buyer rate → Those who browse the SAME category = Only 23% repeat buyer rate This pattern was invisible to us. We were optimizing the wrong moments. While we focused on post-purchase flows, the real retention lever was curiosity-driven browsing seven weeks later. The results: → Testing retention campaigns based on cross-category browsing → 34% higher repeat purchase rates so far Moby isn't just analyzing data. It's trained on $55B+ in ecommerce behavior patterns. It sees connections humans miss. Shopify invested $25M+ in Triple Whale because this level of insight changes everything. Retention isn't about perfect onboarding anymore. It's about understanding the invisible moments that predict lifetime value. And most of us are optimizing the wrong moments. Comment "MOBY" and I'll share the agent library that's changing how brands are thinking about customer retention. Check it out: https://bit.ly/4nJ3Axs #TWPartner

If your customer journey map has 5 stages, you’re thinking like a marketer. If it has 27, you’re finally thinking like a customer. Most retention strategies fail because they’re too simple. → Awareness → Interest → Purchase → Repeat → Advocate That’s not how people buy. They go through: • Scrolling in bed → • Seeing an ad twice → • Googling → • Reading reviews → • DM’ing a friend → • Leaving the tab open → • Finally buying ...and then: → Waiting for delivery → Trying it once → Not sure how to use it → Remembering it during travel → Using it daily → Getting compliments → Wanting a second one Map it all out. Every moment is a chance to educate, earn trust, upsell, or reassure. Not every stage needs an email. But every stage needs consideration.

My Favorite Analyses: the Recency-Frequency matrix. This simple yet powerful framework goes beyond traditional segmentation to provide actionable insights into customer behavior. By focusing on how recently and how often customers engage with your brand, you can tailor your strategies to maximize lifetime value. Why it works: - Recency: Customers who have purchased recently are more likely to purchase again. It's a strong indicator of engagement and future behavior. - Frequency: Customers who purchase more often demonstrate loyalty and satisfaction, leading to a higher customer value. Recency and Frequency are the most important indicators of customer value, exhibiting more correlation to CLV than Monetary Value which is the third component in traditional RFM analyses. The Recency-Frequency matrix helps you categorize your customers into segments based on behaviors instead of factors like demographics or psychographics that imply actions. The analysis reveals distinct customer segments that require unique marketing strategies, including your Champions, the customers who Need Attention, and those who have Already Churned. Implementing the Matrix: Depending on the size of your customer dataset, the Recency-Frequency matrix can be built in a spreadsheet or a more hefty tool like SQL or R. - Excel/Google Sheets: Use `MAXIFS`, `COUNT`, `PERCENTRANK`, and a pivot table to build the Recency-Frequency matrix, but watch out for row limits. - SQL: Leverage functions like `DATEDIFF` and `COUNT` to calculate metrics, and segment with `NTILE`. - R: The `RFM` package handles large datasets with ease, offering advanced segmentation and visualization. This approach isn’t just theory — it’s a data-backed method for ensuring your marketing dollars are spent where they’ll make the most impact. DM me if you'd like to learn more, including the marketing strategies that I most commonly recommend for each Recency-Frequency matrix customer segment. Art+Science Analytics Institute | University of Notre Dame | University of Notre Dame - Mendoza College of Business | University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign | University of Chicago | D'Amore-McKim School of Business at Northeastern University | ELVTR | Grow with Google - Data Analytics #Analytics #DataStorytelling #MyFavoriteAnalyses #ROI #MROI

One mistake that several marketers make is to treat every user in the same way. All users are not equal. They are at different stages of their buying journey. Knowing how they differ won’t let you control WHEN they’ll buy. But it’ll help you market better so that when they buy, they choose you. Here’s how needs/objections vary with stages of a buyer journey. 🧵 *** [1] Awareness They know you exist.  Maybe they’ve seen an ad, or heard of you from a friend. But they don’t need you. Ex - If you’re selling toys for kids of < 5 yrs, I may be aware of you, but I don't need you as I don't have any kids. You filter an aware audience into an audience with intent/need (more on this in the next post). *** [2] Intent These are people who need your product, looking for options. But they may not buy from you because they don’t trust you…yet. Ex- Parents of kids aged < 5 years in the above example and are concerned about their child's engagement. This is the stage where you identify them and start building trust about your brand. *** [3] Trust + Purchase They’re ready to buy, and you’re their top choice. Good! It’s because you’ve managed to address their objections and won their trust.  Your goal now is to create urgency and remove any friction so they buy from you soon. But that’s not all… *** [5] Loyalty Two ways happy customers can help you grow:  → repeat purchases → referrals Ex - The parents whose kids loved the toys - ask them to refer a friend. That's more customers in the funnel. Also, keep in touch, so next time they want to buy, you’re on top of their minds. *** Consider this, you can’t sell even to your ideal customer without awareness or trust. Your message needs to match the stage of your buyer.