Retail Economics

Listen on your favourite podcast platform or click the link below to hear this week's episode of the Retail Roundup Podcast! 🎙️ We cover key updates from TikTok, Sosandar, REVOLUTION BEAUTY and many other retailers. Join the conversation and discover what’s shaping the retail landscape. With fresh episodes every Monday at 6am, the Retail Roundup Podcast is your go-to source for staying informed on the latest developments in the fast-paced retail world. Whether you're a seasoned professional or new to the industry, our podcast delivers essential insights and the most current retail news to keep you ahead of the curve. 🔗 Listen here: https://lnkd.in/e8Urgs3g

What’s been happening in retail this week? ·        OpenAI launched a shopping research feature in ChatGPT, allowing users to describe products and receive personalised buyer guides across categories including electronics, beauty, sport, outdoor and home, with direct purchasing planned for supported merchants. ·        InPost UK partnered with eBay to enable parcel sending and receiving via lockers and parcel shops, to support out-of-home delivery adoption. ·        Frasers Group acquired Braehead Shopping Centre for c.£220m, adding the Renfrew-based site with more than 100 retailers to its portfolio to support its Elevation Strategy and physical retail footprint. ·        SHEIN led Black Friday influencer marketing with 14,396 creator posts generating 521 million views, while H&M reached 2.4 billion views and SEPHORA 1.4 billion according to influencer agency Kyra. ·        Marks and Spencer identified 500 potential locations to support doubling its food operation, with 20 stores set to open or renew before year-end creating 800 jobs. Over half the estate will adopt the renewal format by April 2028, focused on larger sites averaging 18,000 sq ft. ·        Co-op opened 11 stores in one week as part of plans for 50 launches between November and December and more than 200 new or refitted stores in 2024/2025. ·        Boden opened its first standalone US store in Alpharetta, Georgia, a 2,000 sq ft site offering curated monthly womenswear edits following its 2002 US digital launch. ·        Anthropologie opened a new store in Manchester’s Royal Exchange, marking its third opening this year. ·        Asda’s debt rating was downgraded from B+ to B by Fitch Ratings, which warned profits will fall more than expected due to price investment and IT transition issues. ·        ASOS.com reported a 64% rise in adjusted EBITDA to £131.6m on adjusted revenue down 14% to about £2.46bn for the year to 31 August, with statutory pre-tax loss narrowing to £281.6m; it expects £150m to £180m adjusted EBITDA in 2025/26. ·        REVOLUTION BEAUTY reported its gross profit fell by 31.5% to £15.9m and sales dropped 31.8% to £49.4m in the six months to 31 August, attributing issues to previous management. It expects a 2025/26 adjusted EBITDA run rate of between £8m and £10m. ·        Kingfisher plc raised full-year adjusted pre-tax profit guidance to £540m to £570m after volume growth and recovery in big-ticket categories, with like-for-like sales up 0.9% in the quarter and 1.6% year-to-date to 31 October; the UK & Ireland saw around 3% sales growth, including 2.8% at B&Q and 3.3% at Screwfix. 💥 💥 💥 Follow our weekly podcast below, covering all major retail news updates every Monday at 6am ⬇️ https://lnkd.in/eZNDVfZ7

Black Friday is a pivotal promotional driver of sales in the UK’s golden quarter, driving a second peak to festive trading around the November sales event, beyond the final run-up to Christmas. Savvy shoppers in beauty, clothing and home categories now time purchases around the Black Friday window – both delaying purchases for deeper discounts and pulling forward Christmas spending to make the most of the sales event. In this environment, retail winners do not necessarily discount hardest. We’ve seen four key levers being pulled around Black Friday: 1: Promoting trusted pricing. Retailers are looking to cut through the noise of Black Friday discounts with clarity, credibility and transparent value, including: •       Boots UK has sharpened perceived fairness by stacking Advantage Card and Price Advantage benefits on top of Black Friday deals. •       Currys plc has reinforced confidence with its “Lowest Ever Price” guarantee. •       Marks and Spencer, operating outside formal Black Friday mechanics, has focused on curated November offers across beauty, knitwear and home. 2: Click-and-collect as a differentiator. Hybrid fulfilment is acting as a key differentiator against online discounters, with stores improving convenience. •       Argos is leveraging Sainsbury’s for fast same-day pickup. •       IKEA expanded click and collect, pick-up points and lockers to spread fulfilment load. 3: Extended Black Friday offers. Retailers have spread activity across November to avoid operational bottlenecks and protect margins, including: •       Amazon UK promoting a full Black Friday Week. •       AO and The Very Group refreshing offers throughout November to keep momentum consistent. •       Tesco blending Black Friday ranges with Clubcard-led deals across grocery, household and general merchandise. 4: Circularity remaining visible. Refurbished, repaired and preloved options continue to be promoted as savvy Black Friday shoppers ultimately balance affordability and longevity. We’ve seen: •       Decathlon highlight its Second Life refurbished range. •       John Lewis & Partners support promotions with repair services, warranties and protection plans. •       George at Asda maintain visibility for its Preloved fashion offer. Black Friday 2025 is proving more mature, data-driven and customer-centric. The strongest performers are set to be those able to differentiate beyond blanket discounts, leveraging loyalty, trusted pricing and channels to drive value. For more insights, follow our page: https://lnkd.in/eraziFx

With inflation proving sticky, productivity revised down and public debt near historic highs, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has set out a tighter, stability-first economic path in the Autumn Budget. The cautious package carries important implications for shoppers and businesses. Here are the key points from the Budget and latest Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that matter most for retail, hospitality and consumers. Key economic updates: · GDP growth is expected to average 1.5% a year through 2026–29, driven by trend productivity revised down to 1% by 2030. · CPI inflation remains higher for longer at 3.5% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, returning to target only from 2027. · Unemployment is expected to remain close to 5% until 2027, keeping labour markets tight and wage pressures elevated. · Nominal earnings rise close to 5% in 2025, before easing to c.2–3% later in the decade. · Real household disposable income growth slows to around 0.25% a year from 2026 onward, despite stronger near-term gains. · Public debt peaks at 97% of GDP in 2028–29 and stabilises at 96% thereafter. Borrowing is expected to fall to 1.9% of GDP by 2030–31, with £22bn of fiscal headroom – modest by historical standards. Key points for retail and hospitality businesses: · There will be a permanently lowered business rate for 750,000 retail, hospitality and leisure businesses. This will be paid for by higher rates on properties worth more than £500,000, claimed to be used by “warehouse giants”. · Customs duty are to be applied on parcels of any value to help prevent online retailers undercutting high street retailers on price. · The minimum wage for 18- to 20-year-olds will rise from £10 to £10.85, while the living wage will increase from £12.21 to £12.71. Key points for consumers: · No rises in Income Tax, NICs or VAT, but frozen personal tax and employer National Insurance contributions thresholds will push around 1.7 million more people into higher tax bands by 2029–30. · Taxing salary-sacrificed pensions contributions from 2029, with a £2,000 cap on salary sacrifice into a pension. · A council tax surcharge on properties worth over £2m of £2,500 a year, rising to £7,500 for properties worth more than £5m. · The annual Isa cash limit will be set at £12,000, down from £20,000, from 6 April 2027. · Mileage-based charging for EVs starts in April 2028, set at roughly half the petrol duty rate. · Fuel duty frozen until September 2026. · Reversals to welfare cuts and the removal of the two-child limit increase support for around 560,000 families from 2026-27, strengthening spending power particularly for value-led retailers. · Energy measures and scrapping the energy company obligation (ECO) scheme are expected to lower CPI inflation by around 0.3 percentage points in 2026. Follow our weekly podcast below, covering all major retail news updates every Monday at 6am ⬇️ https://lnkd.in/eZNDVfZ7

Retail shares fell back last week due to company-specific shocks and macro pressures. The Retail Economics Composite Index fell by -2.5%, underperforming the FTSE All‑Share which declined -1.7%. Games Workshop (+16.7%) jumped after a trading update showed core revenue of at least £310m and PBT of not less than £135m for the half-year, although licensing income is projected to fall markedly. WHSmith (+4.0%) advanced despite a leadership change, after chief executive Carl Cowling resigned following an internal review into “extremely poor accounting” practices in the U.S. travel division. The board said the issue was limited to a single subsidiary and would not affect group guidance. B&M Retail (+2.5%) rose as brokers turned positive on its discount positioning, highlighting resilient footfall and expectations of a strong festive season. JD Sports Fashion (-11.6%) declined after warning that the UK remains its weakest market, citing youth unemployment and volatile demand; like-for-like sales are down and full-year profit is expected at the lower bound of guidance. ASOS.com (-13.0%) stocks slipped back after full-year results showed a 14% revenue decline to, though adjusted EBITDA improved to £131.6m and inventory was cut to £402m. The company sees stronger margin progress ahead but customer volumes remain under pressure. Ocado Group's (-17.6%) share price disappointed following the announcement from US partner Kroger that three automated warehouses will close, cutting fee income by around $50m and raising broader doubts over its robotics platform rollout.

Listen on your favourite podcast platform or click the link below to hear this week's episode of the Retail Roundup Podcast! 🎙️ We cover key updates from Ocado Group, Vinted, WHSmith and many other retailers. Join the conversation and discover what’s shaping the retail landscape. With fresh episodes every Monday at 6am, the Retail Roundup Podcast is your go-to source for staying informed on the latest developments in the fast-paced retail world. Whether you're a seasoned professional or new to the industry, our podcast delivers essential insights and the most current retail news to keep you ahead of the curve. 🔗 Listen here: https://lnkd.in/e8Urgs3g

What’s been happening in retail this week? ·       Boots UK acquired Concepta LLC from MyHealthChecked PLC to expand private testing, adding over 20 at-home health tests with digital links to labs and clinicians, supporting personalised care and Boots’ pharmacy and healthcare centre strategy. ·       Asda raised £568m through two sale-and-leaseback deals, including £467m from selling 20 stores and a depot and £101m from four more sites, with 25-year leases. ·       Vinted is exploring a secondary share sale that may value the business at about €8bn, with revenue expected to rise roughly 40% to more than €1bn in 2025 driven by €10bn of goods sold. ·       Marks and Spencer partnered with Coles Group to launch M&S Food in Australian stores for the first time, starting with favourites such as Percy Pig and Colin the Caterpillar before expanding to more than 200 SKUs next year. ·       Vagabond Wines launched a direct-to-consumer platform offering nationwide next-day delivery on more than 50 SKUs, using online sales data to guide buying and bar lists. ·       Superdrug joined Just Eat to offer rapid delivery from 29 stores, with a nationwide rollout planned by March, giving access to more than 8,000 products across 43 categories. ·       John Lewis & Partners launched a retail media proposition at its newly refurbished Bluewater store, featuring a seven-by-four-metre digital billboard and eight screens across key departments. Partners include the LEGO Group, Samsung Electronics and Waterstones. ·       Alibaba.com will launch AI Mode in December, integrating agentic AI to interpret natural language queries, analyse specifications and compare suppliers. ·       WHSmith chief executive Carl Cowling resigned after a Deloitte review found North America supplier income overstated by about £30m, with Andrew Harrison becoming interim chief executive. ·       Ocado Group shares fell more than 17% on 18 November after Kroger said it will close three automated US warehouses in January, cutting Ocado’s annual fee revenue by about $50m (£38m). Ocado expects more than $250m (£190m) in compensation, while Kroger projected a $2.6bn (£2bn) charge. ·       JD Sports Fashion reported a 1.7% like-for-like sales decline for the 13 weeks to 1 November and warned profits will be at the lower end of expectations, citing weaker demand, consumer volatility and rising unemployment affecting its demographic. ·       Mulberry England reduced underlying pre-tax loss to £7.4m for the 26 weeks to 27 September, with its reported loss halving to £6.9m, supported by “stable gross profit, strong cost control, and a focus on profitable locations in core markets”. Group revenue fell 4% to £53.9m and like-for-like sales declined 2%. 💥 💥 💥 Download our latest research with ZigZag Global to understand the cost of returns in Spain and key strategies for retailers to protect their margins, available below: https://lnkd.in/ex6iPHQa

The end of free returns? Only 24 of 100 fashion retailers still offer them. One of the most striking findings from our new returns benchmark with ZigZag Global: Just 24 of the UK’s 100 largest clothing and footwear retailers now offer truly free returns, with no fees, deductions or delivery charges. The rest are introducing friction, either through explicit fees or by withholding delivery refunds, to help offset rising operational costs. This shift is helping to change behaviour: • Customers are becoming more selective before purchasing • Retailers are using fees to deter serial returners • Tolerance thresholds are tightening, especially among younger shoppers • Premium brands are using free returns as a loyalty differentiator, not the norm What’s clear is that “free returns” has moved from an industry standard to a strategic choice that only a minority now make. The “free returns era” is ending. The next phase will be defined by clarity, choice, and refund speed – the factors customers care about most. To find out more about different strategies, and the difference between a good returns experience and a great one, download the report here: https://lnkd.in/eF-BDUuC

Retail shares diverged last week, as fashion and specialist names rallied while major grocers lost recent momentum. ASOS.com (+20.6%) accelerated after announcing a £238 million refinancing deal that extends debt maturities and cuts annual interest costs by around £5 million. This strengthened confidence in its liquidity position and gave investors relief that near term funding pressure is easing. Ocado Group (+14.2%) rose on fresh industry data showing it was the fastest growing UK grocer over the latest 12-week period, with sales up 15.9%. This momentum helped offset concerns about its automation partnerships overseas. Topps Tiles (+12.3%) rose again as investors continued to reward signs of improved operational control and cost efficiency. Watches of Switzerland Group PLC (+10.7%) benefited from progress in US-Switzerland tariff discussions and a firmer gold price, both supportive for luxury watch demand. Tesco (-7.6%) fell back following a strong run. Market share gains and easing grocery inflation were not enough to sustain recent strength, with some analysts warning of thinner retail margins into 2026. Marks and Spencer (-7.5%) declined after investors questioned whether the recent revival in general merchandise sales can be maintained. Analysts flagged tougher comparatives and signs that value competition is tightening. Sainsbury's (-7.8%) fell after industry data showed supermarket sales growth slowing to 3.2% in the four weeks to 1 November, down from 4.1% a month earlier.